Critical insights from mathematical modelling

Key Highlights

Like a beckoning vista of mountain ranges, every move closer to winning this war reveals the scale masking the disguised distance setting apart the distant milestones.

As we all desire an end to the pandemic so as to enjoy free social interactions in the campestral beauty of our diverse open fields, welcoming and practising all the recommended containment measures must remain our first line of defence.

The wavy nature of the infections in Kenya has established a sinusoidal curve which reaches its peak every four months. Could this be telling of a fourth wave starting July 2021?

Global Overview

As of April 13, 2021, the confirmed COVID-19 cases globally had topped 138 million, a big leap from just one million cases at the beginning of April 2020. With over 32 million cases by April 13, 2021, the USA has been topping the battered league table of COVID-19 cases globally as India and Brazil keep exchanging the second and third positions with over 13 million cases each.

With more than five million cases, France has risen to the top in Europe to become the fourth globally in total cases — more than Africa’s total of 4.4 million as of April 13, 2021. For her population size, 17% of the global total, Africa’s 3% share in the global COVID-19 cases has been low by any measure. South Africa has been leading the continent consistently in reported cases, more than 1.5 million by this date. Completing the top-ten list of COVID-19 cases in Africa as of April 13, after South Africa, were Morocco (502,961), Tunisia (274,604), Ethiopia (232,512), Egypt (212,130), Libya (170,045), Nigeria (163,911), Kenya (147,147), Algeria (118,799), and Ghana (91,477). As such, the countries of North Africa have dominated the top list of cases besides having higher death rates per million people —mostly in the range of 100–700 deaths per million.

Africa’s shares of global deaths, serious or critical cases, and recoveries as of April 13 were 3.9%, 3.4%, and 3.6%, respectively. In terms of the share of serious or critical cases, however, Africa had 1.1% of her total confirmed cases in this category, much higher than 0.4% for the whole world or 0.5% for Kenya (increased from 0.4% a month before) on this proportional measure.

Africa and Kenya: Share of Active and Serious COVID-19 Cases

As of April 13, Africa had reported more than 4.4 million COVID-19 cases with a case fatality rate of 2.6% and a recovery rate of 89.5%. This means that Africa, despite hosting 17% of the world’s population, had disproportionately lower COVID-19 cases, at only 3.2% of the global total.

Africa’s shares of global deaths, serious or critical cases, and recoveries as of this date were 3.9%, 3.4%, and 3.6%, respectively. In terms of the share of serious or critical cases, however, Africa had 1.1% of her total confirmed cases in this category, much higher than 0.4% for the whole world or 0.5% for Kenya (increased from 0.4% a month before) on this proportional measure.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, Sudan and Mauritania included) had reported more than 3.1 million cases by April 13 (71% of Africa’s total). The active cases in SSA were 7% of the total SSA cases, with a case fatality rate of 2.5% and a higher recovery rate of 90%. Though the percentage of serious or critical cases out of the total confirmed cases has recently stayed at 0.1% for Kenya, Africa, and globally, Kenya’s share doubled to 0.2% by April 9, 2021.

Kenya’s share of active cases has been rising with the lowering recovery rates. On April 13, 2021, the total cases reported in Kenya hit 147,147 with a case fatality rate of 1.6% and a recovery rate of 68%, a significant reduction from the 80% recovery rate recorded months earlier. As of April 13, the share of active cases was 30.7%, up from 29.3% on March 31. These shares of active cases were way much higher than the corresponding shares for Africa (7.9%) and the global mean of 17.4%. The active cases in Africa made up 1.4% of the global sum of active cases.

What the latest Data says about Kenya

As a share of Africa’s total active cases, Kenya was claiming 13% of Africa’s active cases between April 9 and 13, up from 12% on March 31.

Nairobi, Kenya’s seat of government, may be famous for towering buildings, but now it has to confront decisive moments to contain the towering challenge of containing the resurgent pandemic. The observed progression of active cases in Kenya, from the data so far shared by the Ministry of Health, gives reasons for more caution. As a share of Africa’s total active cases, Kenya was claiming 13% of Africa’s active cases between April 9 and13, up from 12% on March 31.

Kenya’s share of serious or critical cases out of the active cases has been going up as well: from 0.4% on March 31, 0.5% on April 9, to 0.6% on April 12. Given that Kenya’s active cases had exceeded 45,000 by April 14, a change of only 0.1% represents about fifty cases, hence significant.

As a share of Africa’s total serious or critical cases, Kenya had 6.8% of Africa’s total as of April 12, up from 5.1% on March 31. This rising share of serious or critical cases is stressful to the health system of the country as the demand for bed space and oxygen goes up. This red alert led to a partial lockdown of the Nairobi metropolitan area in March, which has further influenced travel restrictions for Kenyans going abroad.

Insights from Models: Fourth Wave in July?

COVID-19 testing capacity across Africa has since last year remained much lower than the rest of the world’s. The figure below has illustrations of this reality based on population-normalised daily average rates: tests/million people/day for snapshots from July 2020 to March 2021. Though rising gradually from a score of 65 of late, Kenya’s score on this metric as of April 13 had only reached 72.5, much lower than the score for Rwanda (236.0), Morocco (403.4), and South Africa (420.8) on the same date.

The wavy nature of the infections has established a sinusoidal curve which reaches its peak every four months. Could this be telling of a fourth wave starting July 2021?

The model used to simulate the cases in Kenya, shown below from mid-January to the end of March, shows that the positivity rate and COVID-19 cases surged significantly from February 26 to the end of March, keeping the third wave closer to the simulated upper trajectory. The wavy nature of the infections in Kenya has established a sinusoidal curve which reaches its peak every four months. Could this be telling of a fourth wave starting July 2021?

As we all desire an end to the pandemic so as to enjoy free social interactions in the campestral beauty of our diverse open fields, welcoming and practising all the recommended containment measures must remain our first line of defence. Like a beckoning vista of mountain ranges, every move closer to winning this war reveals the scale masking the disguised distance setting apart the distant milestones.

Hope, patience, and discipline will keep us alive until we realise the dream. No strong soul had an easy past, anyway.

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